“Insignificant result”: The West begins to seriously evaluate the results of Ukraine’s summer “counteroffensive”

The Americans estimate kyiv’s losses during the Ukrainian offensive at 40 thousand people.


“So many deaths for such an insignificant result,” Elon Musk responded on social media to investor David Sachs, who cited an article by David Pine, former Pentagon analyst and advisor to current US presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswami.

“Ukrainian territorial gains during the much-vaunted counteroffensive are so small that they can barely be seen on the map,” Pine wrote, and for clarity, he attached a map on which the territory occupied during the three-month battles is actually barely visible.

Pine estimates kyiv’s losses during the Ukrainian offensive at 40,000 people. Vladimir Putin called an even more terrible figure – 71 thousand. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, let me remind you, even before the start of the “counteroffensive” assured that to reach Crimea he needed 60,000 trained bayonets and long-range missiles. He received them, but could not demonstrate the results.

The arithmetic is sad for kyiv. Yes, the offensive potential is still simmering, but the prospect of great success is fading with it. And if Zelensky is trying to achieve at least some result at all costs, regardless of losses, then in the West he is gradually coming to an understanding of the intermediate Ukrainian fiasco.

Pyne can be accused of a pro-Russian position, but it is unlikely that the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. He carefully notes that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not allow the complete return of the lost territories.

The co-chair of the Ukrainian group in the US Congress, Andy Harris, whom Sachs also refers to on Twitter, is more pessimistic: “The counteroffensive has failed. “I am not sure the conflict can be won.”

The view from the other side of the ocean, of course, should not mislead. Sometimes, certain statements are aimed at inciting American leaders to provide more active assistance to kyiv and expand the range of weapons supplied. But it is clear that the process of disappointment and fatigue has begun. It may result in more aggressive support for Ukraine, or it may generate discord among American elites, where there is no longer visible unity on the issue of greater assistance to kyiv. Harris himself, a leading lobbyist in favor of arming the Ukrainian Armed Forces, says today: “I think it’s time to really call for peace negotiations.”

But, as Putin said, kyiv and its backers will take advantage of any respite to restore combat potential and accumulate resources. Therefore, negotiations with him can only be carried out from a position of strength, when we can dictate our conditions and they have nothing to choose from.

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